Is MicroStrategy's Bitcoin Gamble Finally Cracking?

So, MicroStrategy, or Strategy, or whatever they're calling themselves this week, is down 40%? Color me shocked. This whole Bitcoin-as-corporate-strategy thing always smelled like snake oil, and it looks like the market's finally catching on.

Saylor, that Bitcoin evangelist... let's be real, he turned a software company into a crypto casino. And now the shareholders are paying the price. The stock's tanking, the preferred shares are looking less and less appealing (hence the dividend hike, desperation move if you ask me), and the premium they used to get over their Bitcoin holdings? Vanished.

"Strategy recently announced it is raising the dividend on its preferred shares to 10.5% in November. The move comes as the company attempts to revive sluggish demand for these securities..." Oh, so now they're trying to make it attractive? Where was this thinking when they were yolo-ing billions into magic internet money?

The Dilution Disaster

And the dilution? Don't even get me started. They're printing shares like it's going out of style to fund this addiction, and every new share makes the existing ones worth less. It's basic economics, people! But hey, who needs economics when you've got the gospel of Bitcoin, right?

They can't even issue shares below 2.5x net asset value anymore, except for interest and dividend payments. Which, offcourse, they need to do to keep the whole charade afloat. It's like a Ponzi scheme with extra steps.

Speaking of Ponzi schemes, remember those "crypto experts" who were predicting Bitcoin to hit a million dollars by now? Where are they now? Probably hiding under a rock, hoping no one remembers their ridiculous predictions.

Chasing Rainbows

Now they're talking about international markets and Bitcoin ETFs backed by preferred shares. Seriously? It's like they're throwing darts at a board covered in buzzwords, hoping something sticks. And a euro-denominated preferred share offering? $715 million? That's cute. A drop in the bucket compared to the billions they've sunk into this black hole.

And analysts? Please. "Strong Buy" recommendations? These are the same people who told us FTX was a safe investment. I wouldn't trust them to pick my lottery numbers, let alone advise me on where to put my hard-earned money. The average price target is $523? That's over 120% upside potential? Yeah, and I'm expecting a unicorn to deliver my pizza tonight.

I saw one headline saying MSTR stock increased by 30 times when BTC prices rose. So what? Past performance is not an indicator of future results, you know? As one article points out, Microstrategy shares have been Strategy Shares Plunge as Bitcoin Retreats—More Pain Ahead?.

Oh yeah, they beat earnings expectations last quarter. Whoop-dee-doo. It's all smoke and mirrors. The real question is, what happens when Bitcoin finally crashes for good? Will MicroStrategy go down with it? My guess is yes.

But hey, what do I know? Maybe I'm just a bitter old cynic who doesn't understand the future of finance. Maybe Saylor is a genius, and we'll all be bowing down to him when Bitcoin hits a million dollars. Then again, maybe I should go buy a lottery ticket...

It Was a Dumb Idea to Begin With